How Stable is Turkey? An In-Depth Look at the Country’s Political Situation

Turkey, officially the Republic of Türkiye, is at a critical juncture as it approaches its 100th anniversary in 2023. The country faces significant political instability and economic fragility. In this article, we will examine Türkiye’s level of stability by looking at the current state of its democracy, economy, governance system and foreign relations.

The Slide into Autocracy

Türkiye has undergone a steady democratic backslide over the past decade, transitioning from a promising emerging democracy to an entrenched autocracy. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has systematically consolidated power in the executive branch and undermined checks and balances.

Some key events marking Türkiye’s autocratization include

• Constitutional amendments in 2017 that abolished the parliamentary system in favor of an executive presidential model granting Erdoğan sweeping powers.

• The imposition of a state of emergency following the 2016 failed coup attempt, which was used to crack down on dissidents and purge tens of thousands from the civil service. Many emergency measures were later enshrined into law.

• Increased pressure on opposition parties, especially the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) which faces closure Hundreds of HDP members remain imprisoned

• The arbitrary removal of elected mayors in the Kurdish-majority southeast by the central government.

• The tightening grip on Turkey’s already subservient media, with around 90% of outlets now under government control.

This repression has made elections neither free nor fair. The playing field is heavily skewed in favor of Erdoğan and the AKP, with opposition parties hindered at every step. The judiciary and other institutions lack independence from the executive. Freedom of expression is heavily curtailed.

A Fragile Economy

Economically, Türkiye faces significant vulnerabilities that threaten its financial stability. Key weaknesses include:

• Persistently high inflation, exceeding 85% in January 2023, severely eroding purchasing power.

• A weak currency, with the lira having lost over 50% of value against the US dollar in 2021 alone.

• Declining currency reserves, increasing Türkiye’s reliance on short-term foreign borrowings.

• High unemployment of around 12%, disproportionately impacting youth.

• Increased poverty, with over a third of Turks at risk based on income levels.

• Widening current account deficit driven by Türkiye’s heavy reliance on imports.

Erdoğan’s unconventional economic policy decisions, including pushing for rate cuts despite soaring inflation, have aggravated instability. The lack of credible institutions and rules-based policymaking has hurt investor confidence. The brain drain of young and educated Turks opting to emigrate is a worrying trend.

An Inefficient Governance Model

The transition to a presidential system has centralized power in Erdoğan’s hands, sidelining other institutions. Parliament has been reduced to a rubber stamp. Ministries and local governments lack autonomy, requiring Erdoğan’s approval even for minor decisions. This has created huge inefficiencies in governance.

Nepotism and patronage in public sector appointments have seen a decline in meritocracy and the state bureaucracy’s effectiveness. Public administration lacks transparency or oversight safeguards. Regulatory bodies like the central bank have lost their functional independence.

Overall, the governance system suffers from poor planning, delayed decisions, inadequate checks and balances, and an over-reliance on a small circle around Erdoğan. This models lacks resilience to address Türkiye’s complex policy challenges.

Foreign Policy Challenges

On the geopolitical front, Türkiye faces regional isolation as its assertive foreign policy has backfired. Relations with the West have frayed over issues like Ankara’s purchase of Russian missiles, human rights violations, and tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Meanwhile, Erdoğan’s military interventions in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh have bred instability. Within NATO, Turkey blocks membership for Finland and Sweden. Ankara’s refusal to back Western sanctions on Russia amid the Ukraine invasion has drawn criticism.

Domestically, Erdoğan uses an anti-Western nationalist narrative for political gain. But this makes Türkiye’s policy unpredictable for allies and limits cooperation.

Outlook: Early Elections in 2023?

Public discontent over economic hardship and authoritarianism is growing within Turkey, reflected in opinion polls and the success of opposition parties in winning major cities like Istanbul and Ankara. To regain control of the narrative, Erdoğan may opt for early elections in 2023 rather than wait until June.

However, with the opposition fractured, a unified challenger has yet to emerge who can seriously threaten Erdoğan and the AKP’s dominance. Significant instability is likely to continue in the near term. Only substantial political and economic reforms can put Türkiye back on a path to stability, but prospects for this look dim.